tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5603152282016051647.post2021076111349187319..comments2019-03-24T09:47:42.629-07:00Comments on Politics and Religion: Bullshitting With Friends: The Sinking ShipPhat Jimhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09151703524818828602noreply@blogger.comBlogger3125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5603152282016051647.post-81721763606500621412012-09-21T20:16:23.205-07:002012-09-21T20:16:23.205-07:00I saw somewhere that Reagan was down 8% points to ...I saw somewhere that Reagan was down 8% points to Carter in October going into the debates. We all know how that turned out.<br /><br />Clearly Obama has the momentum, and the numbers, right now; but I think Obama is getting a lot more credit, and a lot more overconfidence from his supporters and the media (due to Romneys self-inflicted wounds) than he actually deserves. If Romney does well in the debates, everything could change and the narrative could swing from "Obama in a rout" to a big comeback from Romney. Dan Kobrinskihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06423964801368918342noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5603152282016051647.post-65537354174964069722012-09-21T14:03:12.233-07:002012-09-21T14:03:12.233-07:00Well, Obama is over 50% in most polls, which is pr...Well, Obama is over 50% in most polls, which is pretty good. Very few Presidential races are decided by more than 10% of the vote. Moreover, there are quite a few people out there, who President Obama would never write off (but I am), who will never accept President Obama as their President. Some do so because of racial animus, but most are simply swept up in the polarization of our times. So, the reality is that no matter how bad Romney does, he will get at least 40%-45% of the vote. <br /><br />By the way, this argument is different than Romney's 47% crack because aside from the racism, I'm not subscribing any particular view to them. At best the racist group makes up maybe 20% of the electorate (and even that is high). Also, Obama has tried, and keeps trying to reach out to those folks. But I digress. . .<br /><br />What I mean to say is that, at best, there is 15% of the vote up for grabs in any Presidential election. Right now, it looks like Obama is getting the lion's share, but the polls are a bit as no one knows who will vote and who won't (and poor Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight is about to have a nervous breakdown). Add to that problem that the polls which occurred after the 47% crack haven't been released yet, and then the differing methodologies and . . .who the hell knows.Phat Jimhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09151703524818828602noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5603152282016051647.post-82264279519320393262012-09-21T13:37:37.953-07:002012-09-21T13:37:37.953-07:00Hi Jim, good post. I dont disagree that the Romne...Hi Jim, good post. I dont disagree that the Romney campaign is pretty lackluster and generally sucking right now.<br /><br />However as someone who is interested in politics but generally disdainful of "party" politics (and therefore not emotionally invested in supporting one party or the other) I feel I have a somewhat detached perspective - and what I think is interesting is that all the "common wisdom" and group think out there right now is that the Romney campaign is sputtering, he is in free-fall, he's the most unpopular candidate ever, etc. etc.; yet in the polls he is relatively even or at least very close to Obama. <br /><br />If I were a Democrat, that would worry me. It seems to be setting up to be the type of thing where everyone is knocking him, everyone is pointing out how "its over", leaving open the classic "unbelievable" comeback. Its almost like in a football game where one team completely outplayed the other in the first half; everything went wrong for the losing team and the winning team dominated every facet of the game...yet the score at the half is still close and the leading team hasnt blown open the game. Im always scared when my team is the leading team in those situations, because everything went right for them, yet the score is still close. Dan Kobrinskihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06423964801368918342noreply@blogger.com