Screaming Into the Void - Thoughts on the Ohtani Mess

Something interesting happened in baseball that doesn't have to do with play on the field. Not the Athletics complete descent into madness (maybe I'll post about that later), not the new uniforms (see through pants!), but the ongoing saga of Shohei Ohtani and his interpreter, Ippei Mizuhara. (If you know baseball, skid down to the 6th paragraph, as I'm am just giving background).

For those of you who don't know who Shohei Ohtani is, he's essentially the Japanese reincarnation of Babe Ruth. Like Ruth, Ohtani is a pitcher who can hit. In baseball, this is so rare (because pitching itself is a craft that requires hours of preparation and work that it leaves little time to do the work to hit major league pitching), that pitchers are no longer required to go to the plate and hit. Rather, both leagues now use a designated hitter to hit for the pitcher. 

And Ohtani isn't just a pitcher who can hit. He's a pitcher with ace-level stuff, and a hitter who can hit 50-60 home runs per year. In comparison, Babe Ruth might have been a better hitter, but Ohtani is a better pitcher than Ruth. Obviously, being compared to one of the legends of the sport seems extreme, but it is completely apt here. Moreover, unlike Ruth, Ohtani actually takes care of himself. 

So, when it came to free agency last year, it was no surprise that Ohtani signed an enormous contract - 10 years, $700 million. While baseball salaries are huge, no one else is anywhere near $50 million per year, much less $70 million per year. But for a guy like Ohtani, the number, while huge, seems about right. He's an ace pitcher who hits. In the history of MLB - which is a long history, mind you - there's only one other player that compares (Babe Ruth, in case you weren't paying attention).

But after the signing, a lot of weirdness came out. First, most of the money in the contract is deferred, with Ohtani being paid over the course of 30 years, not just 10. This is weird because the team that signed him (the Dodgers) are more than able to pay the money to him without deferment. Apparently, Ohtani requested the money to be deferred, which may be a tax dodge. And certainly the California Franchise Tax Board thinks so. 

Second, Ohtani announced that he was married. Given Ohtani's status as a huge celebrity in Japan (he reportedly makes over $50 million in endorsements annually in Japan), the fact that Ohtani was even dating anyone was a shock, much less being married.

Third, and the whole point of this post, Ohtani got connected to a gambling scandal. Specifically, an illegal bookmaking operation in Orange County who was under investigation by the FBI, received money from Ohtani's banking account, which violates federal law. The initial report was that Ohtani made those payments to the bookie at the request of his interpreter, Ippei Mizuhara. Actually, at the behest of the interpreter for the Los Angeles Dodger, as Mizuhara was their employee. This report was based on the statements made on Ohtani's behalf by CAA, Ohtani's sports agent.

The three problems with that statement is (1) if it was true, Ohtani would have violated federal law; (2) it looks like Ohtani used Mizuhara to place bets on his behalf to avoid MLB's prohibition on gambling; and (3) it was completely, and utterly false.

We now know that Mizuhara - who was Ohtani's friend, and more or less his gateway to the English speaking world - stole over $16 MILLION from Ohtani to cover his extensive gambling debts. Mizuhara was apparently over $40 million in debt, which he racked up in 2-4 years. He did this by literally impersonating Ohtani over the phone, and hacking Ohtani's bank application (reportedly changing the settings so Ohtani wouldn't be notified about any withdrawals from his account). Further, the reason why the initial statement was made that Ohtani paid this money to cover for Mizuhara was because Ohtani's agent ONLY TALKED TO MIZUHARA about this, and took Mizuhara at his word.

While some people are talking about Ohtani and gambling, I would like to point out one thing that's stuck in my craw since this went down: CAA RELIED ON MIZUHARA FOR ALL COMMUNICATIONS WITH OHTANI. This is the same guy who, according to the FBI (and who's about to plead guilty), REGULARLY LIED TO OHTANI ABOUT WHAT PEOPLE WERE SAYING TO HIM IN ENGLISH. Now, this is bad, in and of itself, obviously, but the bulk of these conversations occurred WHILE OHTANI WAS NEGOTIATING THE LARGEST FREE AGENT DEAL IN MLB HISTORY.

In other words, we have no idea if Ohtani actually intended on signing with the Dodgers or if he was steered there by Mizuhara - who subsequently was hired by the Dodgers at an inflated salary. We have no idea if the deferment was Ohtani's idea, or if it was Mizuhara's guilty conscience (if there is no money to steal, he can't steal it). Now granted, this issue is not nearly as sexy as gambling, but this is the sort of thing that keeps attorneys up at night. The sole use of Mizuhara for communications with Ohtani could very well be deemed malpractice. It could potentially be grounds for Ohtani to void his contract with the Dodgers. Hell, is Ohtani's contract with CAA even valid, or did Ohtani keep them on because Mizuhara told him to (rather than go to an agency that had Japanese speakers on staff)?

For those of you in the media, this is the story, not gambling. I am 1000% sure that Ohtani's lawyers (who just came onto the scene here) is taking a close look at any contract where Mizuhara took part as the negotiator. But in the meantime, journalists, LOOK INTO THE CONTRACT NEGOTIATIONS WHERE MIZUHARA WAS THE INTERPRETER! Just because Mizuhara is pleading guilty does not mean this story ends.

News Flash: Democrats are Members of A Political Party

Yesterday, we saw the House Republicans blow themselves up when they threw out Kevin McCarthy as Speaker. McCarthy was done in when 8 of his Republican colleagues voted to oust him, coupled with 208 Democrats. In the aftermath, McCarthy blamed the Democrats for his ouster rather than blame the guys who brought the motion to kick his ass to the curb.

While McCarthy's statements are largely sour grapes, it is also true that he seemed genuinely shocked that the Congressional Democratic Caucus wouldn't support him. After all, he had just pushed through a clean spending bill (which he previously promised he would push through, and then tried to renege, and then blamed Democrats for its passage). Other people have expressed concern that the actions of the Democrats in the House sends Congress into chaos. 

But all that forgets the fact that Kevin McCarthy is a REPUBLICAN member of Congress. The party that put him into power is the REPUBLICAN PARTY. The members of Congress who made him Speaker of the House (after 15 votes) were REPUBLICANS. At no time did any Democrat support McCarthy. And why would they? He opened an impeachment inquiry into Joe Biden despite any evidence of any wrongdoing. And McCarthy has been a partisan weasel his entire career. Not backing McCarthy was the most obvious play for the Democrats here. In fact, if the shoe was on the other foot, any Democratic Speaker would be considered foolish for counting on Republican votes to save their ass.

All of this leads me to another point that has been floating around in my discourse for awhile - the Democratic Party is a POLITICAL PARTY. Democratic politicians are going to act like partisan politicians. Democratic Party officials are going to act like political party officials. That should be the expected thing. Because that's how normal political parties operate.

I recognize that we are in very strange times, but the weird behavior is all coming from the Republican side of the aisle. McCarthy went down because unlike all other Speakers who have held the position, McCarthy failed to keep his backbenchers in check during the session. That's on him. 

If not Trump, then Who?

The last time I blogged, I talked about how the good money was on Trump winning the nomination. And I stand by that belief because of all the potential Presidential candidates, Trump does give the GOP the best shot at beating Joe Biden because he is so good at firing up the GOP base.

But. . .the guy is facing 74 felony counts SO FAR. And he's likely to be indicted on several more felony counts related to January 6, and his shenanigans with Georgia and Michigan. That's a lot for any voter to digest. In particular, the Mar-a-Lago case is especially problematic for Trump because he is absolutely the kind of guy to pull shit like this. He can argue away the New York indictments, or the January 6th stuff as fighting for his voters, but stealing state secrets so you can show them off to your dinner guests is. . .not good. Recent polls are showing that some Republican voters are backing off of Trump. Of course, that's right now. It would not be surprising if Trump was able to turn the tide with GOP voters.

With that said, if not Trump, then who? Whoever would be selected would be a sacrificial lamb, as Trump would absolutely run as an independent and split the GOP vote (the only way he stays out of prison is if he's elected), and they would be running against an incumbent in Joe Biden. But that's not a bad thing if the goal of the candidate is to essentially clean up the GOP's reputation. Make a good showing, and the stink of Trump is gone by 2028 (and possibly by 2026).

Of those who are running, I think we can assume DeSantis will not be the nominee. It is sort of wild how Florida keeps putting up candidates who look like surefire winners (Jeb!, Rubio) only to have them flame out early, but here we are. DeSantis is running out of cash, not connecting with voters, and keeps running smack into bad press. For instance, he had to fire ANOTHER staffer for posting ANOTHER ad featuring Nazi imagery. And with his fascist tendencies, DeSantis isn't the kind of candidate who can wash off the stink.

Nikki Haley and Tim Scott are two who could. Haley was a reasonably decent governor of South Carolina, and Ambassador to the UN under Trump. Not great, but not awful. Tim Scott, also from South Carolina, fits in much the same mold. They'd get killed in the general election, but would do so with dignity and grace. 

Chris Christie, the former governor of New Jersey, and someone who sucked up to Trump in an attempt to be AG, and was denied, wouldn't be a bad choice for a sacrificial lamb, either. The media likes him, and he would pose a direct and aggressive challenge to Biden. This is the guy who destroyed Marc Rubio in a debate. Now, his past is such that he could easily be lampooned as a jackass (he once blocked off traffic to a city because the mayor refused to endorse him), but he's fast enough to stay in the game. 

Asa Hutchinson/Doug Burgum are also possibilities as nominee. In a normal world, Hutchinson would be a favorite, as he served in Congress and was a governor. A governor of a state with one of the highest murder rates in the country, but still a governor. Burgum is a governor of North Dakota which shouldn't be a state. 

Larry Elder would be, as he was in California, an enormous disaster. But it is true that he would be Trump without the indictments, payoffs to pornstars, or overt Russian mafia/intelligence connections. 

And then there's Mike Pence. He would absolutely get creamed with dignity. But he's in Ron DeSantis territory where he's got no shot. A better shot than DeSantis at this point, but not by much.

Of the bunch, if I were a GOP primary voter, I'd probably go with either Tim Scott or Chris Christie. In fact, a ticket with both Scott and Christie would lose with dignity, while also getting some shots in for 2026. 

Trump is Going to Be the GOP Nominee, and Other Observations

 Hey everyone, before I jump into this post, I do want people to know that I do still blog - but I haven't posted because my posts are usually crap, or incomplete. The joys of being a lawyer with young kids who works from home. Also, while I'm technically on Twitter (as I haven't shut down my account), I don't use it ever. You can find me at lawyerjsd@mastodon.social. Now onto your regularly scheduled programming:

As of right now, former President Donald J. Trump is facing a fuck ton of legal problems. He's under an indictment in New York State for fraud, a federal indictment for violations of the Espionage Act (ironically, the very same statute he accused Hillary Clinton of violating in 2016), has another possible federal indictment coming for his involvement in the January 6 insurrection, and possible indictments in Georgia, Nevada, and Michigan for threatening officials (amongst other things). And then we get into civil liability, including multiple lawsuits for defamation pending. It's. . .a lot. More than any Presidential candidate has ever faced during a campaign. Hell, most candidates would drop out to deal with the legal stuff.

But Trump isn't going to drop out. The fact is, Trump is probably dead to rights on the one federal indictment we know about, and is likely dead to rights on the one coming up. At his age, any time in prison likely means he's in prison for the rest of his life (and if you have seen any of the Ticktocks on federal prison life, federal prisons are not a place to be, ever). Trump's only shot at not dying in prison is to run for President, win, and then pardon himself on the federal charges. Then he can negotiate a deal on the state charges (possibly). That's his way out.

Given this fact, you might wonder whether Trump has any shot at winning anything. And well, he does. The thing about Trump is separates him from every other Republican out there, is he understands the Republican Party voter without BEING a Republican Party voter. This is a key distinction.

If you look at a guy like Ron DeSantis, or Mike Pence, who are dyed in the wool Republicans, they believe the bullshit they espouse. DeSantis believes that his fight against Wokeism is some kind of crusade and expects everyone to applaud him for it, because that's the bullshit that everyone spouts off. But aside from people who are deeply hooked into conservative media, no one gives a shit about wokeism or CRT. And they don't give a shit about drag shows, or transgendered people. They are just pissed that they are losing when other people seem to be winning.

Trump understands this innately. What were his stated policies in 2016? That his supporters would get tired of all the winning. In 2020, the GOP national platform - a document which usually spans hundreds of pages of policies - simply stated that the platform was whatever Trump said it was. And people ate that shit up. 

No other candidate can capture that kind of Id on the GOP side. DeSantis is a bully, a thug, and worst of all, someone who cares about policy. Nerd! Pence isn't going to go anywhere - the diehards were literally going to lynch him on January 6. Tim Scott and Nikki Haley are basically running for VP bonafides. Christie is running to try and get his reputation back from being Trump's errand boy. 

None of these candidates can make the case against Trump because none of them will tell Trump supporters that Trump is a loser. That he lost the 2020 election, and that he only won 2016 because the vagaries of the Electoral College. None of them can, because Trump has made the idea that he won in 2020 part of the GOP canon. Why else wouldn't the Republican Senators convict him for his actions on January 6? 

Further, every other candidate has something to lose if they stay in too long. Trump does not. The only way he avoids prison is winning. So expect him to try and pull every trick he can possibly conceive of to win. And his supporters will cheer on every attempt. In the meantime, if Trump gets elected, the people around him are planning on a wholesale takeover of government. That's if he gets elected. But nonetheless, we're once again headed for dangerous times.

Coming Out of Retirement For Roe v. Wade

Okay, it's been several years since I've actually blogged. For a short while, I thought about starting a podcast (because I'm a white guy, and that's what we do), but I couldn't figure out how you actually post audio files to be a podcast because. . .well. . .fuck, I'm old. Also, I have young kids.

But with the recent decisions of the US Supreme Court regarding Texas SB8, the law banning abortions after 6 weeks, and the recent decision allowing this law to go forward because procedurally it's weird. Let me say the following - despite what you may or may not think about abortion rights, this law, and the Supreme Court's determination that it cannot enjoin the application of this law should be terrifying to everyone. 

Here's why: as if this time, abortion rights are still technically protected by the U.S. Constitution. Had Texas utilized a traditional enforcement mechanism - criminal prosecution - the Supreme Court would have to determine whether or not abortion rights are still constitutionally protected. Since Kavanaugh is a chickenshit, and the other conservative Justices don't give a shit, the Supreme Court sidestepped the issue, stating that it cannot hear a case where private actors are tasked with enforcing the law. That's. . .actually worse than just overturning Roe.

Under the Texas statute, all abortions after being able to hear the fetal heartbeat are prohibited. That is effectively 6 weeks from the date of the woman's (or, if the person is trans or nonbinary, the child bearing person's) last period.* Anyone who induces or performs the abortion, anyone who aids or abets the abortion, and anyone who intends on aiding or abetting the abortion is liable to anyone - literally anyone in the world - for a statutory minimum damages of $10,000, plus actual damages (if they exist), and attorneys' fees and costs. If the plaintiff loses the case, they are not liable for anything. 

The scary part here is that it encourages all kinds of mischief. Give someone a ride to Planned Parenthood? That's $10,000 plus attorneys' fees and costs (likely over $10,000), even if that person doesn't get the abortion. If Google allows Texas women to conduct internet searches for "how can I get an abortion?" Google, and all of its employees, would likely be liable for aiding and abetting.** If a hospital performs a D&C post miscarriage and doesn't make it very clear that it was a miscarriage (medically known as a SPONTANEOUS ABORTION), that's $10,000 of liability for everyone in the hospital. Now, the general policy effects are horrific - typical medical services for child bearing people would be severely curtailed for fear of litigation from all over. But what's especially concerning is the fact that the Supreme Court has given tacit approval to this enforcement mechanism. 

That's because if this enforcement mechanism is allowed to stand, then any state could take away constitutional rights (and remember, abortion is still technically a constitutional right) by utilizing this enforcement mechanism. California, for instance, could ban all criticism of Gavin Newsom and even allow people to sue others for intending to criticize Gavin Newsom. Missouri could ban the practice of Mormonism, and allow random people to sue people for practicing Mormonism, intending to practice Mormonism, or aiding and abetting people intending on practicing Mormonism. Hell, a state could outright ban Black people from voting so long as they use this mechanism.

In other words, by punting on the question of whether abortion is a constitutionally protected activity based on this enforcement mechanism, the Supreme Court just opened the door for states to take away every other Constitutionally protected right. Now, you could say that when this issue does come up in the future for the First Amendment, or whatnot, that the Supreme Court will decide differently. And that's certainly possible, but the Supreme Court doesn't hear every case - the lower courts do. And all of them will be bound by this decision. 

And there's more - the Supreme Court just held that to pursue a case in federal court, whether under diversity jurisdiction or not, the plaintiff has to plead and prove concrete harm - that the harm alleged in the complaint resulted in the loss of money or property, or in the loss of a substantive right. What this means for Texas is that all of the cases will be held strictly in Texas state courts until after the Texas Supreme Court hears the case. Similarly, any bounty statute of the sort Texas has implemented found in any other state would never see the inside of a federal courthouse until, maybe, the Supreme Court decided to hear the case. Now, for a state like California, that's not terrible as the Courts here are pretty good. But in other states? 

The long and short of it is that this Court is looking to do real damage to the rule of law in this country and we're just at the beginning. 

*Just as an aside: the earliest a person would ever know they're pregnant is four and a half weeks after her last period, and even then, only if she's taking a pregnancy test every single day. Even then, the tests at that stage are completely unreliable. For the vast majority of women, they aren't aware that they're pregnant until week 5 or 6, so this effectively bans all abortion. 

**If I were Google's General Counsel, I would be EXTREMELY concerned about this eventuality. 

The 2020 Election Early Retrospective

 Yeah, it's been awhile since I last blogged, but I was fighting with a 3 year old over. . .everything. Ugh. Anyway, as of this morning, here are my general thoughts:

It Looks Like Biden Will Win. . .

As of right now, Joe Biden appears poised to win the Presidency. He's up in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Arizona, and looking promising in Pennsylvania and Georgia. He will most likely get over 300 electoral votes. While we can get into the some of the disappointment below, the thing to keep in mind is that Biden actually managed to pull off the victory. That's not a small feat given that Trump raised over $1 billion, blew threw it, and then utilized every portion of the federal government he controls to help his reelection. Our tax dollars funded much of his campaign, including the Republican National Convention being held on the grounds of the White House. That's. . .pretty fucking amazing. 

And if you look at the electoral history of presidential elections, what Biden did last night (assuming he pulls off the win), is even more amazing. Incumbent presidents get the benefit of the doubt - meaning that when someone who's undecided steps into the voting booth and votes, they tend to vote for the guy in office. That makes the job of the challenger incredibly hard, and that goes double for Presidential elections. In the past 90 years of Presidential elections, only three (if the numbers hold) Presidents have lost a reelection campaign: Jimmy Carter, George H.W. Bush, and Donald Trump. 

What's also amazing about the potential win is that Joe Biden is not the transformative figure that Ronald Reagan or Bill Clinton were. He doesn't represent a watershed change in the Democratic Party - he is a Party insider. It is pretty clear to me is that Biden fits with the mood of the non-Trump voters. He was somber, and more than any other candidate I've ever seen, could understand the grief that a lot of people are feeling right now. And his campaign in that regard was pitch-perfect.

But It Wasn't A Landslide

If you look at the fundamentals of Donald Trump's Administration, it's pretty clear that, at least as domestic policies go, Donald Trump was the worst President of my lifetime. I would have said George W. Bush, but Bush got a fair bit of (EXTREMELY BAD) legislation passed. The only major piece of legislation passed in the past four years was a tax cut for the rich - and a major tax increase for middle class families, by the way. That's it. Everything else Trump has done has been by executive fiat. Now, unlike Bush, he hasn't gotten us into 2-3 foreign wars, but he fucked up the COVID-19 response, and 230,000 people have died.

In that context, it's little wonder that QANON developed with the underlying premise that this is all a facade of nonwork, and that behind the scenes, any day now, Trump is going to arrest all the sexual predators. For those of you who are wondering, Trump is not going to do any of that. He used to walk into the dressing rooms of Miss Teen USA to ogle teenage girls dressing. He doesn't give a shit about sex trafficking, and never has. 

And, in fact, Trump doesn't have any positions whatsoever - except for taking away the protections for people with preexisting conditions from the ACA. Nor does the Republican Party. Their platform was literally, "whatever Mr. Trump says it is." I'm paraphrasing, but I'm not joking. Look it up.

Despite all of his craziness, his rampant corruption, the fact that women are being forcibly sterilized at the Border, the fact that he orphaned hundreds of refugee kids, the fact that he bungled a pandemic so badly my daughter will probably never see her kindergarten classroom, Donald Trump almost won reelection. In fact, he got more votes in 2020 than he did in 2016. Now, again, some of that is the incumbent effect, but the deeper issue is that we have a divide in this country that is based largely on the types and sources of information we receive. As a result, it's like we as a country live in two different worlds. That's really, really, bad.

In fact, it's untenable. How can policies be discussed or considered when there's no agreement on what the underlying problem is? Or what's actually going on? How can you ever come to some agreement? As an attorney, I negotiate settlements all the time and I've learned something - the Parties have to be on the same page. Right now, we're nowhere near the same book.

To give you an example, take COVID-19. While we're still learning about this disease, we know that it is transmitted through the air, that it causes hospitalization in 15% of all reported cases, and it causes death in 2.75% of all cases. We know this because of the numbers put out by Johns Hopkins and the CDC, among others. Now, there might be some variation in the death toll, but we generally know that it kills anywhere from 1-5% of those who get the disease. Over 230,000 Americans have died from it. But you look on Facebook, and there are a variety of conspiracy theories regarding Fauci, or that doctors get paid more money for COVID*, and suddenly dealing with the pandemic becomes political. We can't agree on what needs to be done because 50% of the population doesn't believe that COVID-19 is at all dangerous, despite the fact that 1,000 people a day are dying.

A big part of that is the fact that we have two types of media in this country - corporate media (CNN, MSNBC, ABC, CBS) and conservative media (Fox, etc.). Corporate media just wants to sell advertising, and advertisers want to sell people stuff. Conservative media wants to sell itself, and push conservative ideals. In that context, people never really got a full understanding of how corrupt and ugly the Trump Administration really was. And in the meantime, Facebook gives special privileges to the Daily Wire, a conservative outlet, and wave after wave of conspiracy theories hit the public. In the meantime, there are dozens of examples of corporate media normalizing Trump's behavior.

Democrats, meanwhile, are hardly free from blame. Pelosi and the House Democrats stopped investigating and stopped putting in the work necessary to push Democratic messages to the forefront. When Obama wore a tan suit, that's all the GOP and conservative media could talk about for WEEKS. When Trump was found to be taking bribes, or paying $750 in taxes for 2016 and 2017, or when it was discovered he has a secret Chinese bank account, or when it was found that the DHS has an unlicensed doctor ripping out the uteruses of women in immigrant camps against their will, no one put in the work to get that story onto the front page of the New York Times for as long as possible. For that reason, I hope Pelosi steps down as the Speaker of the House. She isn't up to the task.

The long and short of it is, we're going to be dealing with this for a long time. Trump isn't the cause of this breakdown, he's a symptom of a larger rot. My guess is that we'll see Trump, or a Trumpist run for President in 2024, and win the GOP nomination. My worry is that the next one will be a little bit smarter, a little bit more disciplined, and a little bit less obvious in their authoritarian impulses. 

One Note Regarding Bernie Sanders

I've seen a fair number of people online (okay, on Twitter), who say that Sanders would've beaten Trump by a larger vote share. I disagree with this sentiment for a variety of reasons. First and foremost, Bernie Sanders' 2020 campaign apparatus was. . .bad. Going into 2020, Bernie Sanders had a solid core of support, a fundraising base that was unrivaled, and voter data for every voter in the 2016 Democratic primaries. He had every advantage, and never increased his base. I just don't see how Sanders could have pulled off a win.

That said, could a more progressive candidate have done a better job, or won by a larger margin? Possibly. Biden ran a very good campaign, but he was intentionally vague on certain things in order to maintain as large of a tent as possible. But since polling is absolutely fucked, who knows.

Polling is Fucked

As with 2016, the 2020 polling showed a Democratic wave election, and then flipped to a much closer one. While some people assert ulterior motives to pollsters, the issue here is voter screens, and how they're done. Think of it this way, if you call 1000 numbers at random, you are going to get a fair number of people who probably can't vote. You will also get a fair number of people who don't vote, and then you'll get likely voters. Of those, the likely voters are going to be the most valuable because their opinions will translate into actual votes.

But figuring out who the likely voters are in 2020 was a nightmare. Both Parties have shown a tremendous ability to get out their voters to the polls, with Donald Trump's campaign seemingly able to do this at a better rate than the Democrats in places like Florida, North Carolina, and Texas. While voter suppression is a real thing, more people actually voted for Trump this time around than in 2016, and no one expected their votes. That's either the result of good GOTV, or good fraud. 

Either way, the end result is that polling is now broken. I don't know how you fix this. The best bet is probably to stick with polling aggregators like fivethirtyeight.com, but even then, things are tricky.

The Failure of the Federal Government During the COVID-19 Crisis

So, its been a month and a half since my home state of California, along with most of the rest of the country, has been shut down due to COVID-19. It's been. . .interesting to work with a 2 year old in the house, to say the least. I've been lucky in that I can work from home - a good internet connection, Westlaw account, my cellphone, and a scanner (or support staff who can scan things), is all I need.

But for many of you out there, you're kind of fucked right now. If you think of all the industries that can't operate right now - music, hospitality, tourism, museums, retail shopping, sports, etc. - all multibillion dollar industries that are shut down. It's little wonder that we will probably have double-digit unemployment and a GDP contraction of 5%. In the meantime, everyone is wondering when this will end. And so-called "pro-life" politicians are advocating the deaths of upwards of hundreds of thousands of Americans (if not millions) in order to get the economy back on track.

But here's the thing that we all forget - this shelter-in-place order is meant to do two things. First, it's supposed to bend the curve so that our medical facilities don't get overburdened. California and Washington clamped down hard early, and the curve is bent the right way - we have relatively few deaths.* New York City, meanwhile, was slow and the draw to clamp down, and now has more deaths than anywhere else in the country - for now. And from historical accounts, we know that opening up too soon, which is what happened during the last pandemic one hundred years ago, only leads to even worse outbreaks. We need to stay put.

But the second reason we put shelter-in-place restrictions on was to buy time. Specifically, to buy time for the federal government to get its act together, or to get the fuck out of the way so state governments can step in. The goal here is to effectively put in place a test, trace, and treat regime to deal with COVID-19. Basically, we're all going to have to get tested - as unpleasant as the test looks - and tested, and tested. Anyone who tests positive immediately goes into quarantine, and the people they've been around get tested and quarantined. If they get sick in quarantine, they get treated. That's it. While Cheeto Jesus has been complaining about his news coverage, South Korea implemented this exact program - and keep in mind South Korea is a democracy, and is more densely populated than the U.S. - during the same timeline as we were supposed to, and although the U.S. and South Korea had their first infections of COVID-19 on the EXACT SAME FUCKING DAY, South Korea has had next to no new infections (4 yesterday, all from people who were foreign travelers), while we have over twenty thousand new cases today.

Current projections indicate that we need approximately 5 million tests done every single day for the next whenever in order to properly conduct test, trace, and treat. Rather than boost the product of tests and spread personal protective equipment (PPE) to medical facilities, our government has actually gone so far as confiscate PPE from states, hospitals, everyone. It's been a fucking mess. To give you an example, when the US Senate comes back from recess on Monday, they don't have enough tests for the Senators. They just plan to test "sick" Senators. When dealing with a disease that starts asymptomatic, that's felony stupid. And, I should note, THE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT CAN'T SPARE 100 TESTS FOR US SENATORS WHEN WE NEED THE FEDS TO DEVELOP A TESTING PROTOCOL FOR 328 MILLION PEOPLE!!!!!

And that's why I'm writing this post - we are all pissed about being stuck at home. Trust me, I'm locked in with a two year old. A. TWO. YEAR. OLD. My wife and I have literally spent the past month as the snack bitches to our kids! It's awful, despite the fact that my sourdough game is on point now. But that isn't the fault of our governors. Many of them, Newsome included, are fucking TRYING to keep our dumb asses alive. No, your anger, your frustration, and your angry calls should be to Congress and the President. They're fucking this up, and have been from the start.

So stop marching on statehouses with your AR-15s, stop throwing pissyfits along the beach (Encintas and Pacific Beach), and focus that anger and energy on the people who have fucked this from the get-go.

Oh, and as far as where the virus came from - it doesn't matter. Look, it might matter in a few years, and on a historical note, it will be interesting to know, but right now, it doesn't matter. Your lawsuits against the PRC aren't going to amount to anything. Trust me, I am probably more happy to tilt at windmills than most attorneys and even I know that's a dumb idea for at least 6 different reasons.

One last thing: There's a current InfoWars video going around from two doctors in California, and it seems pretty clear that these guys are dead wrong on their conclusions. They cite to the fact that California has very few deaths, and then divide the total COVID-19 deaths in California by California's total population to argue that COVID-19 isn't all that deadly. I'm not a statistician, but even I know that's totally fucked up.

The key numbers are total infections and total hospitalizations. Because the number of hospital beds is basically fixed at just under 1,000,000, and approximately 2/3rds of all beds are filled with non-COVID-19 patients, we have around 300,000 beds nationwide for COVID-19 patients. When we go over that number in a region, the people who would normally survive from COVID-19 but need to be hospitalized will die. That's what's happening in NYC, and what happened in Italy (which had a 7.2% mortality rate). Additionally, because everything gets thrown at COVID-19, all the people who get sick from other shit (and other shit still exists) then have trouble getting treatment, especially when doctors and nurses are getting sick. So, in actuality, a disease which killed over 62,000 people in the past month in the US, is really fucking deadly. The reason why deaths in California are low is because we shut everything down on time.