Wednesday, November 5, 2025

The Shocking Win that Wasn't Particularly Shocking

 In what some would classify as a surprise, Zohran Mamdani was elected yesterday as Mayor of New York. Mamdani is a Democratic Socialist (so part of Bernie Sanders' party, though Mamdani ran as a Democrat), espoused a whole raft of progressive and socialist policy plans, and has been public with his support for Palestine. His opponents included the former Governor of New York, Andrew Cuomo, and the head of the Guardian Angels (a pseudo-vigilante/neighborhood watch group), Curtis Silwa. The current Mayor, Eric Adams, dropped out of the race a few months before the election as he is generally despised.

Now, as someone from Southern California, and as someone who has young children, I haven't really  followed the election in NYC all that closely. But my general take away is really this - if you take away Mamdani's ethnicity (Indian, born in Uganda, and Muslim) - there really isn't anything shocking about this election. With one exception that I will get into.

Here's why it wasn't that shocking. Mamdani's views and policies were based around the idea of making NYC more affordable and making public services more efficient. That's basic bread and butter stuff, and the anti-rich tilt he had is bound to be popular in a modern era where the gap between the wealthy and everyone else grows more and more each day. But rather than being just a policy guy, Mamdani is also a capable communicator. He's telegenic, and can deliver speeches with the same kind of emotional punch as Barack Obama. And not surprisingly, his campaign, knowing that Mamdani was their best asset, utilized social media, particularly short videos on TikTock, etc., to get his message out. So, Mamdani not only had a message that resonated with New Yorkers, but he also had an effective communication methodology. 

In contrast, his opponents neither had a good policy message for voters, nor were they particularly good at communicating those messages. Silwa, the Republican in the race, had a message that New Yorkers appreciated for its eccentricity, but not for the actual policies he espoused. 

Cuomo, meanwhile, ran a campaign on his experience, which makes sense on paper (he is the former Governor, after all, and was Secretary of Transportation under Clinton), but only allowed Mamdani to attack Cuomo on his failures while Governor. And as Cuomo had to resign in disgrace but a few years ago, there was a lot to attack. And Mamdani attacked that record savagely in every debate.

The only wildcard in the race were the plutocrats and billionaires who poured millions of dollars into the campaign on Cuomo's behalf. Meanwhile, Fox News devoted so much attention to the race, that people in Kentucky were contacting state and local officials IN KENTUCKY asking how to vote in the Mayoral elections in NYC. 

But all that attention - from the President (who endorsed Cuomo) on down - only existed to try to reverse the flow of gravity. And, in fact, it likely strengthened Mamdani's message, because Mamdani's campaign suddenly became part of the overall narrative of the 2025 elections (which almost uniformly went against Trump). It's in that context that I learned about this race. 

And it is because of that broader context that this local election provides consequences for the country as a whole. Let me give you one example: the Senate Minority Leader, Chuck Schumer, pointedly refused to endorse in this race, even though he represents New York in the Senate, is a resident of NYC, and Mamdani was the nominee of the Democratic Party (and was also featured in one of the Democratic Party's hype videos it aired yesterday), and was way ahead in all the polling. By every metric, Schumer's refusal to do endorse in this race was a disaster for him. The kind of disaster that could easily lead to a well-funded primary challenger. To stave off this outcome, Schumer will have to take a harder line in the negotiations on reopening the government.

Moreover, other Senators who favor fighting over caving to the GOP's demands on the budget can argue that yesterday's elections show that Trump and the Shutdown are highly unpopular (Trump recognizes this as well). Which means the Democratic Senators, for once, may not cave. Wonders will never cease, I know.