About Kavanaugh and Professor Ford's Allegations

So, when I made my last post, there were some free-floating allegations of sexual misconduct out there, but we didn't have all the facts. Nonetheless, there was enough there to be concerned. Now that it's out there that Professor Ford has, for at least 6 years, told people that Judge Kavanaugh tried to rape her when she was 15, and he was 17, we're left with something that we haven't seen since Anita Hill alleged that Clarence Thomas sexually harassed her when both were employed at the EEOC.

Now, to be clear, this is a bit different (though it does appear that Hill's testimony was truthful, but we'll leave it at that), since the acts described are clear-cut - if Kavanaugh did what Professor Ford says he did, the Kavanaugh at 17 committed the crime of attempted rape. And Professor Ford, being a victim of attempted rape would not have forgotten about it.

Here's something else that I found striking - her prior consistent testimony. Professor Ford has been telling people, including her therapist, her husband, and the FBI since 2012 that Judge Kavanaugh tried to rape her. Now, that's important as far as determining her motive. Rule 801(d)(1)(B) of the Federal Rules of Evidence states that a prior consistent statement can be used to disprove motive. So, if Professor Ford was a big supporter of Roe v. Wade, and made her statement for the first time to anyone last week that Judge Kavanaugh tried to rape her, then that would be suspicious. But instead, she told lots of people not just before Judge Kavanaugh was nominated to the Supreme Court, but before the #MeToo movement.

Also, and though a lie detector test is not admissible in Court, she told the FBI about the incident, and took a lie detector test. Now, that tells me that she is absolutely certain that Kavanaugh tried to rape her because lying to the FBI is a crime. And it isn't a crime that no one gets prosecuted for - people get prosecuted and imprisoned for it all the time. So, if she went to the FBI, and underwent a lie detector test, she did so with no reservations whatsoever.

These facts leave us with three paths:

1) Professor Ford is Crazy: This is always a possibility. Professor Ford could have seen Kavanaugh's name in the newspaper and attached a delusion on him. But I think this is unlikely for lots of reasons. First, Professor Ford is too old to just start having delusions. Schizophrenia and other mental diseases appear in the late 20's and early 30's, which means that by the time she started telling people about the attack, she should have been having delusions for 15 years, which people would recognize.

2) Professor Ford is Mistaken: Professor Ford was attacked over thirty years ago, when she was 15, slightly drunk, and attacked in the dark. Her recollection of her attacker may not have been as clear as it could have been. So, it is possible (though unlikely) that she recognized Kavanaugh as being one of the guys in the social group, two of whom later attacked her. That's possible, and will almost certainly be Kavanaugh's defense - that it wasn't him.

3) Kavanaugh Attempted to Rape Professor Ford: At this point, with what we know, this is the most likely scenario. Even though she was drunk when the attack occurred, this sort of attack has to be a sobering experience. The odds of her remembering this clearly, especially if she sought help from a mental health professional, are very high.

The other complicating factor is that Kavanaugh hasn't exactly been truthful in his testimony to Congress. He pretended to not know the name of a law firm one of his close friends works for, and has worked for for the past 15 years. He claimed to not know about the use of stolen emails when contemporaneous records show otherwise. All in all, his most recent testimony to the Senate had at least five instances of either perjury or testimony that came damn close. So Kavanaugh's denials are pretty worthless at this point. That doesn't mean he did it (she could have the wrong guy), but if he did, he would almost certainly lie about it.

The other factor is whether or not there are other women out there. Now, normally, I stick with my rule of 3 - after the third accuser comes forward, you can assume pretty much that the allegations are true - but here, given Professors prior consistent testimony, any other woman who comes forward would have to be believed at this point.

An Open Letter to Donald Trump

Dear Mr. President:

As much as I hate to use the term, you are the President of the United States of America. Now normally, if you were on fire I wouldn't bother to piss on you to help you out, but as of right now, our interests may be aligned. So, while you'll never read this (because you don't read anything), I do have a bit of advice for you:

Pull Kavanaugh's nomination right now.

Now, sure, I'm a liberal, and I hate you, but hear me out. Right now, you have two big holds over the GOP and conservative movement - your supporters and the power of nominating conservative judges. And you've done the job that the conservative movement has wanted you to do. And you're up to the precipice of finally having enough votes on the Supreme Court to kill Roe v. Wade. And the conservative movement guys have been fighting for the past forty years for this exact moment.

But once Kavanaugh is confirmed, one of your two big levers to power goes away. The conservative movement won't need you anymore. Nor will they need your supporters because they'll have the votes on the Court to overturn every piece of legislation they want. And since Kavanaugh and the rest of the conservatives on the Court are in their 50's, they'll control things for the next 30 years.

In the meantime, you being, well, you, is a tremendous distraction and you're probably hurting the GOP's chances at staying in power come November. And the GOP professional class, those guys who wrote the op-ed in the New York Times trashing you, HATE YOU.

My guess is that them moment Kavanaugh is confirmed, they're going to force you out one way or another (probably through the 25th Amendment). Hell, if they claim that you are incapacitated, they can take away your ability to tweet and contact your supporters. They will drop your ass.

But what about your diehard supporters? These are the same diehards that backed George W. Bush - the guy you trashed throughout the 2016 campaign, while also shitting on his brother - they will move on if Fox News and the conservative hegemons tell them to. And they will.

So, if you want to keep being President, which to both our surprise, you actually do, you need to withdraw Kavanaugh's nomination, and withhold a new pick to the Supreme Court for as long as possible.

Just an FYI. Also, I hope you rot in hell.