If not Trump, then Who?

The last time I blogged, I talked about how the good money was on Trump winning the nomination. And I stand by that belief because of all the potential Presidential candidates, Trump does give the GOP the best shot at beating Joe Biden because he is so good at firing up the GOP base.

But. . .the guy is facing 74 felony counts SO FAR. And he's likely to be indicted on several more felony counts related to January 6, and his shenanigans with Georgia and Michigan. That's a lot for any voter to digest. In particular, the Mar-a-Lago case is especially problematic for Trump because he is absolutely the kind of guy to pull shit like this. He can argue away the New York indictments, or the January 6th stuff as fighting for his voters, but stealing state secrets so you can show them off to your dinner guests is. . .not good. Recent polls are showing that some Republican voters are backing off of Trump. Of course, that's right now. It would not be surprising if Trump was able to turn the tide with GOP voters.

With that said, if not Trump, then who? Whoever would be selected would be a sacrificial lamb, as Trump would absolutely run as an independent and split the GOP vote (the only way he stays out of prison is if he's elected), and they would be running against an incumbent in Joe Biden. But that's not a bad thing if the goal of the candidate is to essentially clean up the GOP's reputation. Make a good showing, and the stink of Trump is gone by 2028 (and possibly by 2026).

Of those who are running, I think we can assume DeSantis will not be the nominee. It is sort of wild how Florida keeps putting up candidates who look like surefire winners (Jeb!, Rubio) only to have them flame out early, but here we are. DeSantis is running out of cash, not connecting with voters, and keeps running smack into bad press. For instance, he had to fire ANOTHER staffer for posting ANOTHER ad featuring Nazi imagery. And with his fascist tendencies, DeSantis isn't the kind of candidate who can wash off the stink.

Nikki Haley and Tim Scott are two who could. Haley was a reasonably decent governor of South Carolina, and Ambassador to the UN under Trump. Not great, but not awful. Tim Scott, also from South Carolina, fits in much the same mold. They'd get killed in the general election, but would do so with dignity and grace. 

Chris Christie, the former governor of New Jersey, and someone who sucked up to Trump in an attempt to be AG, and was denied, wouldn't be a bad choice for a sacrificial lamb, either. The media likes him, and he would pose a direct and aggressive challenge to Biden. This is the guy who destroyed Marc Rubio in a debate. Now, his past is such that he could easily be lampooned as a jackass (he once blocked off traffic to a city because the mayor refused to endorse him), but he's fast enough to stay in the game. 

Asa Hutchinson/Doug Burgum are also possibilities as nominee. In a normal world, Hutchinson would be a favorite, as he served in Congress and was a governor. A governor of a state with one of the highest murder rates in the country, but still a governor. Burgum is a governor of North Dakota which shouldn't be a state. 

Larry Elder would be, as he was in California, an enormous disaster. But it is true that he would be Trump without the indictments, payoffs to pornstars, or overt Russian mafia/intelligence connections. 

And then there's Mike Pence. He would absolutely get creamed with dignity. But he's in Ron DeSantis territory where he's got no shot. A better shot than DeSantis at this point, but not by much.

Of the bunch, if I were a GOP primary voter, I'd probably go with either Tim Scott or Chris Christie. In fact, a ticket with both Scott and Christie would lose with dignity, while also getting some shots in for 2026. 

Trump is Going to Be the GOP Nominee, and Other Observations

 Hey everyone, before I jump into this post, I do want people to know that I do still blog - but I haven't posted because my posts are usually crap, or incomplete. The joys of being a lawyer with young kids who works from home. Also, while I'm technically on Twitter (as I haven't shut down my account), I don't use it ever. You can find me at lawyerjsd@mastodon.social. Now onto your regularly scheduled programming:

As of right now, former President Donald J. Trump is facing a fuck ton of legal problems. He's under an indictment in New York State for fraud, a federal indictment for violations of the Espionage Act (ironically, the very same statute he accused Hillary Clinton of violating in 2016), has another possible federal indictment coming for his involvement in the January 6 insurrection, and possible indictments in Georgia, Nevada, and Michigan for threatening officials (amongst other things). And then we get into civil liability, including multiple lawsuits for defamation pending. It's. . .a lot. More than any Presidential candidate has ever faced during a campaign. Hell, most candidates would drop out to deal with the legal stuff.

But Trump isn't going to drop out. The fact is, Trump is probably dead to rights on the one federal indictment we know about, and is likely dead to rights on the one coming up. At his age, any time in prison likely means he's in prison for the rest of his life (and if you have seen any of the Ticktocks on federal prison life, federal prisons are not a place to be, ever). Trump's only shot at not dying in prison is to run for President, win, and then pardon himself on the federal charges. Then he can negotiate a deal on the state charges (possibly). That's his way out.

Given this fact, you might wonder whether Trump has any shot at winning anything. And well, he does. The thing about Trump is separates him from every other Republican out there, is he understands the Republican Party voter without BEING a Republican Party voter. This is a key distinction.

If you look at a guy like Ron DeSantis, or Mike Pence, who are dyed in the wool Republicans, they believe the bullshit they espouse. DeSantis believes that his fight against Wokeism is some kind of crusade and expects everyone to applaud him for it, because that's the bullshit that everyone spouts off. But aside from people who are deeply hooked into conservative media, no one gives a shit about wokeism or CRT. And they don't give a shit about drag shows, or transgendered people. They are just pissed that they are losing when other people seem to be winning.

Trump understands this innately. What were his stated policies in 2016? That his supporters would get tired of all the winning. In 2020, the GOP national platform - a document which usually spans hundreds of pages of policies - simply stated that the platform was whatever Trump said it was. And people ate that shit up. 

No other candidate can capture that kind of Id on the GOP side. DeSantis is a bully, a thug, and worst of all, someone who cares about policy. Nerd! Pence isn't going to go anywhere - the diehards were literally going to lynch him on January 6. Tim Scott and Nikki Haley are basically running for VP bonafides. Christie is running to try and get his reputation back from being Trump's errand boy. 

None of these candidates can make the case against Trump because none of them will tell Trump supporters that Trump is a loser. That he lost the 2020 election, and that he only won 2016 because the vagaries of the Electoral College. None of them can, because Trump has made the idea that he won in 2020 part of the GOP canon. Why else wouldn't the Republican Senators convict him for his actions on January 6? 

Further, every other candidate has something to lose if they stay in too long. Trump does not. The only way he avoids prison is winning. So expect him to try and pull every trick he can possibly conceive of to win. And his supporters will cheer on every attempt. In the meantime, if Trump gets elected, the people around him are planning on a wholesale takeover of government. That's if he gets elected. But nonetheless, we're once again headed for dangerous times.