Thursday, February 16, 2012

Whitney, Santorum, Birth Control and More: Random Thoughts Blogging

Well, its been awhile since I last posted, and great googly-moogly, Santorum is up huge.  Santorum is spreading everywhere, much to everyone's dismay.  Well, it light of the current frothiness, I have a few thoughts that I probably post before the dynamics of the GOP nomination race pops up again (along with a few other thoughts).

Whitney Houston's Passing: Like everyone else, I was shocked to hear that Whitney Houston had passed last Saturday. . .actually, not really that shocked, more like shock-ished.  After all, Ms. Houston's drug problems were well documented, and that sort of thing isn't very healthy.  Still, it was a sad event, even for someone like me who despised all that Whitney Houston wannabes that she spawned.  Seriously, how many "American Idol" contestants sang "I believe the children are our future?" (Yes, I know that's not the name of the song).  What is also sad is that someone like Whitney, who's mother and aunt worked in the recording industry, fell prey to the worst excesses of fame.  Very sad indeed.

Santorum's Surge: My last post noted the inherent weaknesses of Mitt Romney (he matches up to his own caricatures too well), and the last few weeks have demonstrated this problem all to well.  Up to this point, Romney's campaign strategy wasn't to convince GOP voters to vote for him, so much as to convince GOP voters to not vote for anyone else.  He's engaged in mudslinging with Gingrich, Perry, Bachmann, etc., and his favorability ratings are in the tank for it.  Santorum, who despite winning in Iowa, was under the radar, has managed to take advantage of this strategy.

Now we all know that negative campaigning works.  But here's the thing, negative campaigning is a bit like chemotherapy - you hope the negative ads hurt your opponent (the cancer in this analogy), than it hurts you.  Now, this works in a 2 person race because one candidate has to win, but in a primary, where there are more than 2 candidates, this gets real tricky.  And there are numerous examples of candidates who ended up winning a primary because two well-financed candidates went purely negative - Gray Davis, for one, was elected Governor, after Al Checchi and Jane Harman duked it out in the primary - and Santorum definitely fits that mold.

The other thing that's going on here is that Santorum's views on social issues are probably closer to the average GOP voter than Mitt Romney's views.  Where Romney can be all over the place, Santorum is consistent.  And although Romney may, on paper, be a better match-up to Obama in the General Election, he has some real weaknesses in the Midwest and the South, both key areas for the GOP.  With Romney's key arguments being a job creator (side-tracked by the Bain experience), and electability (being sidetracked by his own unpopularity), he doesn't have much to offer the GOP.  Santorum does at this point.

Birth Control: When referring to Obama's policies, Andrew Sullivan has written that Obama's greatest strength is getting his opponents to overreach.  Never has that been more true than with the birth control decision.  Somehow, he's managed to paint the Congressional GOP into the anti-contraceptive corner, and now Darrel Issa is holding Congressional hearings on the issue, but not allowing any woman to testify about the Pill.  Um. . .problematic much?  The more this goes on, the worse it gets for the GOP.  People may be ambivalent about abortion because they don't know anyone who's had an abortion, but everyone knows someone who's either on the Pill right now, or has used the Pill in the past. 

Linsanity: Okay people, let's get this straight - Jeremy Lin is NOT TIM TEBOW.  Lin was an undrafted 2nd year player who bounced around and found a great situation with the Knicks.  Not only that, but the kid is playing at a high level every single game.  Oh, and he makes almost no money in NBA terms, and has to sleep on his friend's couch.  Tim Tebow was a highly touted college quarterback who was drafted in the first round, got a big contract, and has managed to win multiple games in the NFL despite not being accurate on short and intermediate throws (but is freakishly accurate on deep passes).  There's a big difference here.  Also, the holes in Lin's game (not able to go left, too careless with the ball) are the kinds of holes that NBA rookies have, whereas the holes in Tebow's game (not being accurate with his throws unless he goes deep), are the kind of holes that end someone's career.  With any luck, Lin will end up as a poor man's Steve Nash, and good for him.

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