Rating the Contenders - Early Edition

QUICK NOTE ABOUT THIS POST:

I wrote this a couple of weeks ago, and completely forgot that I forgot to post it. So, the opinions are about two weeks old. In my next post, I'll update my opinions.

So, in my last post, I wrote about how the polls are stacking up, and how, mostly, it's all about name ID right now. Since then, Jamelle Bouie wrote a particularly good article about the prospects of 2020  candidates. The baseline of the article is that white candidates are a bit behind the curve because they have to demonstrate to minority voters that they understand the troubles these voters face every day. Bernie in 2016 was hit by this pretty hard.

And Bouie is right, by the way. One thing that never really was discussed in 2008 was the ability of Obama to appear to Democratic voters as being more liberal than he actually was. Because he was African American, because he went through the trials and tribulations of being the child of a single parent, and then became a community organizer, and then became an attorney, Obama was able to connect to minority voters instantly while at the same time, being moderate enough to swing white voters. As a result, he was able to attack Clinton from her left and her right simultaneously, while also not having to take extreme positions that would turn off voters in the general election. Anyway, it's a really good article and I highly recommend it.

With all that said, here are some of the contenders for the 2020 nomination, and my initial thoughts:

Bernie Sanders: Bernie Sanders, as I said before, probably ran in 2016 as a last hurrah. Sanders spent decades in the Senate not doing much of anything but being a Socialist. He didn't pass any legislation, or really try to. Nor did he try to cobble together a caucus of some kind on the Hill, despite not really having to work for reelection. That changed in 2016, when he ran against Clinton, and did relatively well. Now, keep in mind, he was helped by Russian trolls, and he was running on Clinton's left, where she was weak. Suddenly, he's on the national stage, and he hasn't done much. I don't see him breaking through in 2020.

Beto O'Rourke: Beto ran against Ted Cruz and almost won. He has good-ish name recognition, is young, and fairly progressive. People like Beto. As a result, Sanders' supporters have been attacking Beto, which is foolish because if Beto does run for President, it'll be to raise his national profile before he drops out the race to take on John Cornyn. Beto is young enough to think 2028, not 2020.

Stacey Abrams: The former candidate for Governor of Georgia was absolutely robbed by her opponent, who engaged in every disgusting trick in the book to prevent Abrams' supporters from voting. By all rights, she should be the Governor - unlike Beto who never really stood a chance of winning, but made it really, really close. I think if she runs in 2020, she'll do so, like Beto, to raise her profile for later runs for other office.

Elizabeth Warren: I don't think Warren is going to be the nominee. She'll run, and push the field to the left, and may even be the frontrunner at some point, but I don't know if she's savvy enough. The whole DNA test thing left a bad taste in a lot of mouths and showed she wasn't quite ready for the big stage. Also, her energy is more VP than Presidential. Now, that can change, and it often does, but I have concerns.

Joe Biden: When Joe ran in 2008, it was a Last Hurrah sort of campaign, and it ended up with Biden being a really good VP for 8 years. Probably one of the best because of how he contrasted with Obama. And the Onion articles for Diamond Joe are priceless. But I don't think Biden is the guy. He's too old, and too awkward at this point.

Corey Booker: A definite contender. He's smart, energetic, and the office of President suits him better than being a Senator. When Corey Booker was mayor of Newark, he practically walked the streets like Batman. Seriously. The dude saved a few lives, etc. There are two big issues with the Senator: (1) his Senatorial tenure is good, not great, and (2) he's single. Of the two, the single-ness is a problem for me. Having a spouse is a good tell socially that underneath it all, the person is still a lovable human being. Hell, even Donald Trump is married. Now, if Corey is gay, that would explain his not being married up to a certain point, but same sex marriage is now legal.

Kamala Harris: Another strong contender. Super smart, tremendously capable, and has been known to give powerful speeches. Her only weakness is her newness to the Senate, but that's hardly a handicap, as we saw with Obama in 2008. Plus, unlike Obama, she held statewide elective office in California. And to that end, since California is my home state, being able to run in California for Attorney General and the U.S. Senate, both plum jobs, and win them in a field as crowded as the California Democratic Party says a lot. To do that as an African American and a woman? Basically unheard of. I wouldn't be surprised if she's the nominee.

Kristen Gilibrand: A good candidate but with two big strikes against her. First, her initial career was that of a hard-nosed prosecutor type. That will hurt her with African American voters. Second, she (rightly) pushed out Al Franken from the Senate for his antics with women. While Al didn't do anything remotely near what Trump did, it was still creepy, and he deserved to be bounced from the Senate. On the other hand, what does she bring to the table that Harris doesn't? Not much.

Amy Klobuchar: The Senator from Minnesota is a surprising candidate for President to me. Klobuchar never struck me as someone with rock star potential. At the same time, I never thought Trump's candidacy would go anywhere, so what the hell do I know. Her outward appearance of a mildly mannered Minnesotan would certainly be a good contrast to Donald Trump. I am concerned of reports that she's tough to work for (her staffers tend to come and go quickly, apparently), but I don't have a lot of information one way or the other.

Sherrod Brown: The rumpled Senator of Ohio is definitely running for President because he recently got a haircut that doesn't require much combing. Definitely progressive, blue collar, and seems to be a good guy. His wife, Connie Schultz, is a national treasure of a columnist, which certainly says good things about Brown. I don't see him taking the nomination, but he'll do well in Iowa and New Hampshire.

Steve Bullock: Aside from being the Governor of Montana, I have no idea who he is. Could be great, could suck. No idea.

John Hickenlooper: Another Governor I don't know enough about. Still, he comes from a blue-ish state that became a bluer state under his watch. Also, started a brewery, so there's that.

Bloomberg/Tom Steyer: I'm grouping the billionaires, but that's because I don't think either has much of a shot. Of the two, Steyer has the best shot because Bloomberg presided over the stop and frisk policies of the NYPD, which pretty much kills him with Democratic primary voters. Meanwhile, Steyer has been making friends. My guess is that Steyer gets offered a position with the DNC post-2020.

Swalwell, Garcetti, etc.: There are a bunch of other minor candidates who are in the running who have no shot. I suspect that Swalwell and Garcetti are running for President because they are looking to run for office statewide in California, and need something to stand out of the pack of Democrats.

Now, again, these are really early views, and more about my own personal views of each candidate.