Trump's Key Weakness in 2020.

I've been blogging more or less since the Bush Administration, which. . .shit. . .is a long time. In that time period, I've been thinking about politics and writing about politics on a very part-time basis (being a lawyer and father of young children will do that). But in that time, I've developed a theory of politics and negative hit pieces - hit pieces about something obvious don't work.

By way of example, with Bill Clinton, the GOP went nuts trying to convince everyone that Bill Clinton was a world-class sleazeoid, and that we shouldn't vote for him. The problem with that attack was that (a) the sleaze stuff was often overblown (but not always, as was the case with his affair with an intern); and, (b) most voters pegged Clinton as a sleaze early on, and were okay with it. As a result, the attacks on Clinton got more desperate, and were ignored. And when Clinton did actually do something sleazy, no one batted an eyelash. Similarly, attacks on George W. Bush for stupidity and Barack Obama for being a black guy with a Muslim name were equally dismissed by the voters.

No, the worst hits on politicians are the ones that the politician doesn't see, but which can be backed up. Romney being exposed as a plutocrat with his "47%" remark was brutal because it wasn't something he could walk away from, and you could connect the dots through his policies. Al Gore being exposed as a politician who exaggerated his statements (normal), hurt him because it wasn't a hit he was expecting. John Kerry being attacked as a flip-flopper fed into his years of being in the Senate (I voted for it before I voted against it). These are the kinds of hits that bring down politicians.

With Trump, the obvious hit is that he's a chaotic, racist monster, who's almost certainly on the take. As in, there is literally a lawsuit ongoing about Trump accepting gifts (bribes) from foreign entities. And the key issue in that lawsuit is not whether Trump is on the take, but whether he can be sued for being on the take. But that sort of hit won't affect Trump's numbers because everyone knows Trump is a racist, chaotic monster who's on the take. Those sort of hits won't change any minds.

But there is a hit that will work - point out that Trump, despite his rhetoric, is a dyed-in-the-wool Republican. From the moment Trump has taken office, every single policy choice has been supported by Republicans, including ending the ACA as we know it. He is, for all intents and purposes, a rank-and-file Republican.

Now, you might wonder why that argument is somehow more devastating than attacking Trump for the myriad of scandals the roll through every single day. The answer is simple - in 2016, Trump ran against a huge field of Republicans, and beat every single one because he: (a) had over a billion dollars of free media; and (b) ran against Republican policies. Trump supported increased infrastructure spending, keeping the protections for pre-existing conditions in health care, protecting Medicare and Social Security, and promised government protections for those hurt by the changing economy. The other two Republicans who survived into the primaries - Ted Cruz and John Kasich - were equally unorthodox in their approach. The regular standard bearers - Jeb Bush, etc., - were wiped from the map early on. And keep in mind, this was among Republican primary voters.

Similarly, Mitch McConnell, the Senate Majority Leader, and the guy who's the biggest standard bearer for the Republican establishment regularly has approval ratings below 30 percent, which indicates that even among Republican voters, McConnell is not well liked. In fact, Ted Cruz's presidential campaign got traction when he openly condemned McConnell as a liar on the floor of the U.S. Senate. And in fact, since 1988, the GOP has won a majority of the popular vote only twice - in 1988 and 2004. 

What we also saw in the 2018 mid-terms was a Democratic Party that focused on Republican policies more than on Donald Trump's insanity itself. And it was in that election that the Democratic Party annihilated the GOP.  Indeed, if you look at the policy, from gun control to taxes (yes, taxes), to health care to education to immigration, to most issues, the Democratic Party is closer to what the average voter wants policy-wise than the GOP. And Donald Trump's policies are no exception.

And that's where I think Trump is vulnerable. He's not a transformative politician, or the new face of the GOP, or the next coming of Andrew Jackson, he's a Republican who's not very good at his job.