If not Trump, then Who?

The last time I blogged, I talked about how the good money was on Trump winning the nomination. And I stand by that belief because of all the potential Presidential candidates, Trump does give the GOP the best shot at beating Joe Biden because he is so good at firing up the GOP base.

But. . .the guy is facing 74 felony counts SO FAR. And he's likely to be indicted on several more felony counts related to January 6, and his shenanigans with Georgia and Michigan. That's a lot for any voter to digest. In particular, the Mar-a-Lago case is especially problematic for Trump because he is absolutely the kind of guy to pull shit like this. He can argue away the New York indictments, or the January 6th stuff as fighting for his voters, but stealing state secrets so you can show them off to your dinner guests is. . .not good. Recent polls are showing that some Republican voters are backing off of Trump. Of course, that's right now. It would not be surprising if Trump was able to turn the tide with GOP voters.

With that said, if not Trump, then who? Whoever would be selected would be a sacrificial lamb, as Trump would absolutely run as an independent and split the GOP vote (the only way he stays out of prison is if he's elected), and they would be running against an incumbent in Joe Biden. But that's not a bad thing if the goal of the candidate is to essentially clean up the GOP's reputation. Make a good showing, and the stink of Trump is gone by 2028 (and possibly by 2026).

Of those who are running, I think we can assume DeSantis will not be the nominee. It is sort of wild how Florida keeps putting up candidates who look like surefire winners (Jeb!, Rubio) only to have them flame out early, but here we are. DeSantis is running out of cash, not connecting with voters, and keeps running smack into bad press. For instance, he had to fire ANOTHER staffer for posting ANOTHER ad featuring Nazi imagery. And with his fascist tendencies, DeSantis isn't the kind of candidate who can wash off the stink.

Nikki Haley and Tim Scott are two who could. Haley was a reasonably decent governor of South Carolina, and Ambassador to the UN under Trump. Not great, but not awful. Tim Scott, also from South Carolina, fits in much the same mold. They'd get killed in the general election, but would do so with dignity and grace. 

Chris Christie, the former governor of New Jersey, and someone who sucked up to Trump in an attempt to be AG, and was denied, wouldn't be a bad choice for a sacrificial lamb, either. The media likes him, and he would pose a direct and aggressive challenge to Biden. This is the guy who destroyed Marc Rubio in a debate. Now, his past is such that he could easily be lampooned as a jackass (he once blocked off traffic to a city because the mayor refused to endorse him), but he's fast enough to stay in the game. 

Asa Hutchinson/Doug Burgum are also possibilities as nominee. In a normal world, Hutchinson would be a favorite, as he served in Congress and was a governor. A governor of a state with one of the highest murder rates in the country, but still a governor. Burgum is a governor of North Dakota which shouldn't be a state. 

Larry Elder would be, as he was in California, an enormous disaster. But it is true that he would be Trump without the indictments, payoffs to pornstars, or overt Russian mafia/intelligence connections. 

And then there's Mike Pence. He would absolutely get creamed with dignity. But he's in Ron DeSantis territory where he's got no shot. A better shot than DeSantis at this point, but not by much.

Of the bunch, if I were a GOP primary voter, I'd probably go with either Tim Scott or Chris Christie. In fact, a ticket with both Scott and Christie would lose with dignity, while also getting some shots in for 2026.