Hey everyone, before I jump into this post, I do want people to know that I do still blog - but I haven't posted because my posts are usually crap, or incomplete. The joys of being a lawyer with young kids who works from home. Also, while I'm technically on Twitter (as I haven't shut down my account), I don't use it ever. You can find me at lawyerjsd@mastodon.social. Now onto your regularly scheduled programming:
As of right now, former President Donald J. Trump is facing a fuck ton of legal problems. He's under an indictment in New York State for fraud, a federal indictment for violations of the Espionage Act (ironically, the very same statute he accused Hillary Clinton of violating in 2016), has another possible federal indictment coming for his involvement in the January 6 insurrection, and possible indictments in Georgia, Nevada, and Michigan for threatening officials (amongst other things). And then we get into civil liability, including multiple lawsuits for defamation pending. It's. . .a lot. More than any Presidential candidate has ever faced during a campaign. Hell, most candidates would drop out to deal with the legal stuff.
But Trump isn't going to drop out. The fact is, Trump is probably dead to rights on the one federal indictment we know about, and is likely dead to rights on the one coming up. At his age, any time in prison likely means he's in prison for the rest of his life (and if you have seen any of the Ticktocks on federal prison life, federal prisons are not a place to be, ever). Trump's only shot at not dying in prison is to run for President, win, and then pardon himself on the federal charges. Then he can negotiate a deal on the state charges (possibly). That's his way out.
Given this fact, you might wonder whether Trump has any shot at winning anything. And well, he does. The thing about Trump is separates him from every other Republican out there, is he understands the Republican Party voter without BEING a Republican Party voter. This is a key distinction.
If you look at a guy like Ron DeSantis, or Mike Pence, who are dyed in the wool Republicans, they believe the bullshit they espouse. DeSantis believes that his fight against Wokeism is some kind of crusade and expects everyone to applaud him for it, because that's the bullshit that everyone spouts off. But aside from people who are deeply hooked into conservative media, no one gives a shit about wokeism or CRT. And they don't give a shit about drag shows, or transgendered people. They are just pissed that they are losing when other people seem to be winning.
Trump understands this innately. What were his stated policies in 2016? That his supporters would get tired of all the winning. In 2020, the GOP national platform - a document which usually spans hundreds of pages of policies - simply stated that the platform was whatever Trump said it was. And people ate that shit up.
No other candidate can capture that kind of Id on the GOP side. DeSantis is a bully, a thug, and worst of all, someone who cares about policy. Nerd! Pence isn't going to go anywhere - the diehards were literally going to lynch him on January 6. Tim Scott and Nikki Haley are basically running for VP bonafides. Christie is running to try and get his reputation back from being Trump's errand boy.
None of these candidates can make the case against Trump because none of them will tell Trump supporters that Trump is a loser. That he lost the 2020 election, and that he only won 2016 because the vagaries of the Electoral College. None of them can, because Trump has made the idea that he won in 2020 part of the GOP canon. Why else wouldn't the Republican Senators convict him for his actions on January 6?
Further, every other candidate has something to lose if they stay in too long. Trump does not. The only way he avoids prison is winning. So expect him to try and pull every trick he can possibly conceive of to win. And his supporters will cheer on every attempt. In the meantime, if Trump gets elected, the people around him are planning on a wholesale takeover of government. That's if he gets elected. But nonetheless, we're once again headed for dangerous times.
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