Don't Get Fooled Again

During my freshman year at William & Mary, my freshman seminar class had a debate between a country lawyer Democrat and an Wall Street Republican.  In the debate, the Republican crushed the Democrat when he attacked Bill Clinton over the weakening dollar.  Now, the beating didn't occur because the Republican was right, but rather because the Democrat didn't have the foggiest understanding of economics.  And when the Republican came to our class the next day, I managed to get the Republican to admit he was bullshitting about the weakening dollar because he knew the Democrat had no knowledge of economics.

From that moment on, I realized that if Democrats were going to win debates about the economy, they have to know economic theory, or else they'll get rolled by Republicans.  And finally, we're in a situation where knowledge of economics is a good thing, and we end up getting cowed by the Republicans again.  This tweet by John Boehner is the single most ignorant thing about the economy ever.  He wants to create jobs by cutting government spending. . .Ugh.

Here's the problem with Boehner's prescription - we're not in an inflationary cycle, we're in a deflationary cycle.  Yes, the Budget Deficit is huge, and normally that would mean that there would be large inflationary pressures, but there aren't.  Inflation is phenomenally low at 1% (ish), and the economy still sucks.  That's because we have a demand side recession - businesses and customers aren't spending - rather than a supply side shock - where there's no money to invest.  Or, think 1940's instead of 1970's.  So cutting government spending is like giving a laxative to someone who has diarrhea - its only going to make things worse because now no one will be spending.

Cutting taxes is a less stupid idea, but not exactly brilliant either.  Again, there is no problem with the money supply - if anything, there is too little money in the economy right now, so increasing the monetary supply through tax cuts won't help at all.  It might encourage some people to spend a little more, but not enough to help.

No, the only thing that will work here is a massive increase in domestic spending.  Maybe not New Deal big, but close.  That way, government spending will increase overall demand, and people will have jobs, etc.  Now, I understand the whole, if we spend it, we'll end up spending it for a lifetime theory, so write in Sunset clauses into the spending legislation.  But do something.

And ultimately that's the problem - right now there's no Democratic leader who's saying this.  They're all cowed by the GOP rhetoric on the economy, even the dumb rhetoric.  If I was Obama, I would make this case in a national address every single week until Congress passed the right legislation.  Of course, what I'm saying is exactly what Paul Krugman, a NOBEL PRIZE WINNER IN ECONOMICS has been saying for the PAST YEAR AND A HALF, but what the fuck to we know.  Ugh.

They Finally Did It. . .

I actually had no real plans to write anything tonight, but one of my neighbors held control over the laundry room until late, and I am drying my sheets now. But since I am up, I figured I should comment on the passage of health care reform. So without further ado, here are my thoughts:

1) I actually have little idea what's in the bill. I do know that insurers can't fuck people over preexisting conditions, can't pull the recission bullshit, and nonprofit co-ops can be set up in all fifty states. Outside of that, I am not sure of everything in the bill. Oh, wait, no aid for immigrants, and no publicly funded abortions.

2) The Democrats finally showed some spine. What's amazing here is that this is probably the first bill that was passed without a single Republican vote. In the face of truly ridiculous Republican opposition (to the point the Republicans were just making shit up, i.e. "Death Panels"), and so-so polling, and the fact that every Democratic Administration since Truman tried to pass some kind of health care reform, the Democrats sacked up. To be honest, I didn't think they had it in them.

3) The Republicans overplayed their hand. On a purely political note, the GOP strategy for defeating health care was brilliant, and they masterfully played the Democrats against each other. HCR was even polling badly (of course, if you told people what's actually in the bill, it polls a lot better). They, by all rights, should have won this one, but suddenly, the Democrats showed spine they didn't know they had. That said, the Republicans overplayed their hand yesterday. Calling John Lewis, a civil rights activist from the 50's, the "n-word," and calling Bart Stupak a "babykiller" only got the Democrats mad. The townhall storm of the summer was also ridiculous.

4) The Public Option is dead-ish. Its too bad that the public option didn't make it. That said, not having the public option in the final bill means it can come back later, and much cleaner.

5) I have no idea what the political ramifications of this bill will be, and neither does anyone else. For the first time, the Democrats can point to doing something unpopular for the good of the country - this couldn't be further from the Clinton days. Plus, the measures within the health care reform bill will be popular. At the same time, the opposition is totally and completely nuts. Anything is on the table here.

So what are the lessons to be learned? Having a spine is a good thing, and let's hope for the good of the country, these reforms will work.

On Interrogations. . .

I've written about interrogations before, specifically related to torture, but with the Christmas bomber thing ongoing, I felt the need to comment on the idiocy coming from the Republicans on the Hill. The more and more I hear from these guys, the more I realize that they don't care about truth or policy, but rather, are only interested in scoring political points.

So, here's the reality. The Christmas Bomber is in FBI custody, was Mirandized, and like almost all suspects, HE IMMEDIATELY BEGAN SINGING LIKE A CANARY. No waterboarding, no stress positions, and no smearing him with fake menstrual blood was necessary. The only time the guy stopped talking was when he was under sedation for some kind of medical procedure.

Now, you might ask, how did the Feds get the guy to talk? In reality, the question is, how does anyone not talk to the Feds? Like all law enforcement personnel, FBI agents are expert interrogators (or, at least, the guys interrogating terrorists are) who excel in getting confessions from people who they warn not to say anything. The dance of interrogation is a complex one, but this is pretty much all these guys do. And the suspects thank their interrogators when all is said and done.

Its these interrogators that scare the hell out of Osama bin Laden and Al Qaeda. When the Bush Administration was torturing suspects, Al Qaeda could use the whole thing as propaganda, and knew that the tortured would resist by lying to their captors. The information would be shitty.

But the interrogation of the Christmas Bomber is a total nightmare. Here's a guy who willingly strapped a bomb to his junk (for lack of a better word), because he had nothing to live for, and the Feds got him talking in a couple of hours. And since he wasn't tortured, the information he's giving is as accurate as can be. So, if the Feds can get one of the most dedicated to sing, imagine what they can do to someone who's less dedicated (i.e., not willing to strap explosives to his balls).

So, by all means criticize Obama for a fair number of things, but let's lay off the whole interrogation thing. For once, interrogations are back in the hands of guys who know what they're doing.