Don't Get Fooled Again

During my freshman year at William & Mary, my freshman seminar class had a debate between a country lawyer Democrat and an Wall Street Republican.  In the debate, the Republican crushed the Democrat when he attacked Bill Clinton over the weakening dollar.  Now, the beating didn't occur because the Republican was right, but rather because the Democrat didn't have the foggiest understanding of economics.  And when the Republican came to our class the next day, I managed to get the Republican to admit he was bullshitting about the weakening dollar because he knew the Democrat had no knowledge of economics.

From that moment on, I realized that if Democrats were going to win debates about the economy, they have to know economic theory, or else they'll get rolled by Republicans.  And finally, we're in a situation where knowledge of economics is a good thing, and we end up getting cowed by the Republicans again.  This tweet by John Boehner is the single most ignorant thing about the economy ever.  He wants to create jobs by cutting government spending. . .Ugh.

Here's the problem with Boehner's prescription - we're not in an inflationary cycle, we're in a deflationary cycle.  Yes, the Budget Deficit is huge, and normally that would mean that there would be large inflationary pressures, but there aren't.  Inflation is phenomenally low at 1% (ish), and the economy still sucks.  That's because we have a demand side recession - businesses and customers aren't spending - rather than a supply side shock - where there's no money to invest.  Or, think 1940's instead of 1970's.  So cutting government spending is like giving a laxative to someone who has diarrhea - its only going to make things worse because now no one will be spending.

Cutting taxes is a less stupid idea, but not exactly brilliant either.  Again, there is no problem with the money supply - if anything, there is too little money in the economy right now, so increasing the monetary supply through tax cuts won't help at all.  It might encourage some people to spend a little more, but not enough to help.

No, the only thing that will work here is a massive increase in domestic spending.  Maybe not New Deal big, but close.  That way, government spending will increase overall demand, and people will have jobs, etc.  Now, I understand the whole, if we spend it, we'll end up spending it for a lifetime theory, so write in Sunset clauses into the spending legislation.  But do something.

And ultimately that's the problem - right now there's no Democratic leader who's saying this.  They're all cowed by the GOP rhetoric on the economy, even the dumb rhetoric.  If I was Obama, I would make this case in a national address every single week until Congress passed the right legislation.  Of course, what I'm saying is exactly what Paul Krugman, a NOBEL PRIZE WINNER IN ECONOMICS has been saying for the PAST YEAR AND A HALF, but what the fuck to we know.  Ugh.

Holy Crap, Have I Really Not Posted Anything in a Month?

"[The law] is a jealous mistress, and requires a long and constant courtship. It is not to be won by trifling favors, but by lavish homage." Justice Joseph Story, 1829.

If Justice Story heard about my month, he'd say something to the effect of, "Damn, dude, slow down."  In the past month, I sent out an average of two substantive briefs (written reports to the Court where I actually had to think about the legal issues involved) ever week, for three weeks.  As a result, I have neglected friends, family, and most importantly, my blog. ;)

Anyway, I am still alive, and still thinking about all things politics, food and baseball.  So, rather than write a full-fledged post, here are a few quick thoughts:

1) GO PADRES - Homerism aside, my favorite baseball team is in first place at the All-Star Break, and is doing it all with epic pitching - giving up a mere 314 runs in 91 games (the fewest, by far, of any team in the majors).  Sure, the offense is nothing special, but it doesn't have to be.  Most baseball writers are expecting to Padres to fall apart in the second half, but if you look at the total run differential, the Padres are winning as many games as they should win.  In other words, they are as good as they're playing.  Hopefully, everyone will stay healthy.

2) OBAMA - Ugh.  When I was in college, I remember one of my professors stressing to us that most decisions of significance are made by people below the President.  And here, I think the biggest problem with Obama is that the people surrounding him are less aggressive than Obama.  There has to be a good cop/bad cop element to every negotiation, and Obama is a piss-poor bad cop.  I thought that Rahm Emmanuel would be the bad cop, but he's too moderate in his politics.  So as a result, Obama keeps caving to the Right.

3) THE ECONOMY - I am a Keyesian, so let me state the following to all potential federal decision makers - SPEND MORE FUCKING MONEY.  Oh, and spend it within the U.S., not abroad.  Yes, it'll hurt us in the long term, debt-wise, but not spending the cash and ending up in a long-term deflationary cycle is worse. 

4) RANDOM QUESTION - Why hasn't anyone on the Left thought about organizing the long-term unemployed to march on Washington for more benefits, etc.  Its not like they have anything to do right now.